Situational Hitting
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Situational Hitting |
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We hear a lot these days about situational hitting, about how a hitter
does with runners in scoring position, or with the bases loaded, or
with--well, you get the idea. Anyway, I thought it might be interesting
to look at how ALL hitters do in each of the 24 game situations. Do
hitters tend to perform better with the bases empty or loaded? How much
does having a runner on first help (or hurt) the hitter? I used the
Retrosheet's play-by-play data for the 1982. 1983 and 1987 seasons.
Let's start with some of the raw data:
Out MenOn AB H 2B 3B HR W IW K HBP SH SF
0 --- 108334 28416 5013 670 2944 8688 0 16238 518 0 0
1 --- 77174 19661 3358 525 1946 6649 1 12330 383 0 0
2 --- 60884 15221 2649 374 1494 5726 2 10365 304 0 0
0 x-- 21866 6458 1033 150 615 1485 1 2622 134 2514 0
1 x-- 27040 7771 1303 178 748 1817 2 3490 126 563 0
2 x-- 27691 7137 1205 178 793 2215 4 4239 126 0 0
0 -x- 7695 1942 339 43 145 789 33 1254 39 627 1
1 -x- 13805 3377 606 99 320 2217 663 2446 67 11 3
2 -x- 16078 3887 664 127 370 3261 1222 2905 96 0 0
0 xx- 5384 1443 248 37 142 361 1 753 31 662 0
1 xx- 10615 2786 553 69 241 796 1 1593 49 116 3
2 xx- 13797 3290 575 101 311 1182 5 2479 66 0 0
0 --x 1360 412 72 11 25 171 11 272 8 0 218
1 --x 4058 1271 242 31 94 654 154 782 41 85 761
2 --x 6855 1721 301 53 176 1113 249 1195 41 0 0
0 x-x 2199 721 119 15 53 160 22 348 19 38 358
1 x-x 4180 1439 239 39 161 354 47 593 31 99 779
2 x-x 6434 1635 295 67 154 600 33 1018 37 0 0
0 -xx 1244 369 72 9 30 200 85 272 6 4 198
1 -xx 2616 777 120 19 63 1192 894 573 20 15 446
2 -xx 3367 806 150 34 64 969 555 679 31 0 0
0 xxx 1224 359 57 8 38 78 0 217 11 1 215
1 xxx 3286 979 166 32 94 201 0 602 33 19 605
2 xxx 4598 1113 193 24 117 331 0 771 19 0 0
Total 431784 112991 19572 2893 11138 41209 3985 68036 2236 4754 3587
The column headings should be familiar, with the possible exception of
"IW" for intentional walks. The next set of data has the following
headings:
GDP - grounded into double-plays
ERR - reached base as a result of an error
AVG, SLG, OBP - the usual batting average, slugging and on-base PCTs.
OPS - slugging plus on-base percentage
AAVG - adjusted batting average--SF are considered ABs
ASLG - adjusted slugging percentage--SF are considered ABs
AOBP - adjusted on-base percentage--IW removed from equation
AOPS - adjusted slugging plus adjusted on-base percentage
GDPP - the percentage of total plays resulting in a GDP
ERRP - the percentage of total plays resulting in an ERR
Out MenOn GDP ERR AVG SLG OBP OPS AAVG ASLG AOBP AOPS GDPP ERRP
0 --- 0 1396 .262 .402 .320 .723 .262 .402 .320 .723 0.0 1.2
1 --- 0 950 .255 .388 .317 .705 .255 .388 .317 .705 0.0 1.1
2 --- 0 720 .250 .379 .318 .697 .250 .379 .318 .697 0.0 1.1
0 x-- 2692 360 .295 .441 .344 .785 .295 .441 .344 .785 11.5 1.5
1 x-- 3424 406 .287 .432 .335 .767 .287 .432 .335 .767 11.8 1.4
2 x-- 0 299 .258 .400 .316 .716 .258 .400 .316 .716 0.0 1.0
0 -x- 0 89 .252 .364 .325 .689 .252 .364 .322 .686 0.0 1.0
1 -x- 0 196 .245 .372 .352 .724 .245 .372 .324 .696 0.0 1.3
2 -x- 0 210 .242 .368 .373 .741 .242 .368 .331 .699 0.0 1.2
0 xx- 670 89 .268 .407 .318 .725 .268 .407 .318 .725 11.6 1.5
1 xx- 1299 190 .262 .396 .317 .712 .262 .396 .317 .712 11.3 1.7
2 xx- 0 159 .238 .362 .302 .664 .238 .362 .301 .664 0.0 1.1
0 --x 0 22 .303 .427 .336 .764 .261 .368 .332 .700 0.0 1.3
1 --x 0 78 .313 .458 .357 .814 .264 .385 .338 .723 0.0 1.5
2 --x 0 93 .251 .387 .359 .746 .251 .387 .338 .726 0.0 1.2
0 x-x 269 51 .328 .468 .329 .797 .282 .402 .324 .726 9.9 1.9
1 x-x 575 90 .344 .536 .341 .877 .290 .452 .335 .787 10.8 1.7
2 x-x 0 83 .254 .393 .321 .714 .254 .393 .318 .711 0.0 1.2
0 -xx 0 22 .297 .441 .349 .790 .256 .381 .313 .694 0.0 1.4
1 -xx 0 50 .297 .430 .465 .895 .254 .367 .324 .691 0.0 1.5
2 -xx 0 43 .239 .361 .414 .775 .239 .361 .328 .689 0.0 1.1
0 xxx 155 29 .293 .446 .293 .739 .249 .379 .293 .673 10.1 1.9
1 xxx 499 76 .298 .454 .294 .748 .252 .383 .294 .677 12.1 1.8
2 xxx 0 75 .242 .371 .296 .666 .242 .371 .296 .666 0.0 1.5
Total 9587 5776 .262 .398 .327 .725 .260 .395 .321 .716 2.0 1.2
When I first ran this study (prior to adjusting the averages for SF
and IW), I was amazed at the differences. Batters hit .238 with men on
first and second and two-outs and .344 with men on first and third and
one-out. Of course, much of this difference was an illusion caused by
the fact that in the latter situation almost all fly balls were not
counted as at-bats. Notice that their on-base percentage is actually
lower than their batting average. You can read these charts as well as
I can, but it surprised me that batters generally hit the WORST with the
bases loaded.
One possible explanation for this is that a poorer class of hitter may
be up in those situations. With a base to play with, opposing managers
may elect to intentionally walk a good hitter in order to pitch to a
weaker one with the bases loaded. After all, two of the most common
situations for an intentional pass are with men on second and third and
one or two out. Anyway, here's the mean on-base plus slugging
percentage for the batters at the plate in each of the 24 game
situations:
FST 0 1 2
--- .726 .722 .727
x-- .724 .730 .728
-x- .730 .735 .734
xx- .733 .731 .717
--x .726 .738 .734
x-x .737 .739 .725
-xx .743 .733 .728
xxx .738 .727 .717
So while the hitters are slightly worse with the bases loaded, at least
with two out, the differences are not great enough to explain the
effect we saw.
I also thought it might be interesting to see what impact a hitter's
spot in the batting order has on the type of situations he'd be likely
to encounter in a game. For each of the 9 positions in the batting
order, I've listed the percentage of times a hitter will bat in the
various game situations:
Situation -------------- Batting Order Position --------------
Out MenOn ALL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 --- 24.3 40.6 18.0 17.3 25.5 24.3 22.0 23.1 23.7 23.1
1 --- 17.4 14.0 28.5 13.5 12.9 18.4 17.9 16.7 17.2 17.5
2 --- 13.8 11.6 10.8 21.9 11.8 11.1 15.0 14.7 13.8 14.1
0 x-- 5.4 3.8 8.1 4.5 4.2 6.2 5.7 5.0 5.3 5.7
1 x-- 6.1 4.6 4.6 8.9 5.7 5.3 7.0 6.7 6.1 6.5
2 x-- 6.2 4.7 4.6 4.9 9.4 6.4 5.8 6.8 6.9 6.8
0 -x- 1.9 1.1 4.1 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5
1 -x- 3.3 3.1 3.0 5.8 3.3 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1
2 -x- 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 6.1 4.1 3.3 3.9 4.0 3.6
0 xx- 1.3 0.8 1.1 2.0 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3
1 xx- 2.4 1.6 1.9 1.8 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.4
2 xx- 3.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 4.5 3.6 3.3 3.7 3.8
0 --x 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
1 --x 1.2 0.9 1.0 2.5 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0
2 --x 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.8 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6
0 x-x 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
1 x-x 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1
2 x-x 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7
0 -xx 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
1 -xx 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9
2 -xx 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.9
0 xxx 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
1 xxx 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0
2 xxx 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.3
Empty 55.6 66.1 57.3 52.6 50.1 53.8 55.0 54.5 54.7 54.7
Scor Pos 26.7 20.8 25.5 29.1 30.5 28.3 26.6 27.0 27.0 26.4
3rd<2Out 5.6 4.0 4.8 7.3 6.9 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.4
As expected, the 3rd, 4th, and 5th place hitters have the most
opportunities to drive in runs and the leadoff hitter the least. I was
surprised to see that the differences in RBI opportunities were as
small as they were. The cleanup hitter, for example, saw runners in
scoring position less than 15% more often than the eighth-place batter.
Of course, hitters at the bottom of the order get fewer plate
appearances and, at least in the NL, hitters in the 8th slot tend to
see different pitches than those in the middle of the order.
Speaking of the NL, I wanted to see how much the absence of the DH in
that league affected the distribution of RBI opportunities. Here are
the summary lines for the two leagues:
Situation -------------- Batting Order Position --------------
NL ALL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Empty 55.8 67.7 58.8 53.4 50.2 53.3 54.6 54.2 54.8 53.5
Scor Pos 27.3 20.7 25.5 29.5 31.2 29.4 27.5 27.8 27.7 27.2
3rd<2Out 5.7 3.8 4.4 7.6 7.1 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.9 5.4
Situation -------------- Batting Order Position --------------
AL ALL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Empty 55.4 64.7 56.0 52.0 50.1 54.2 55.3 54.8 54.7 55.7
Scor Pos 26.3 20.9 25.4 28.7 29.9 27.4 25.9 26.3 26.4 25.7
3rd<2Out 5.6 4.2 5.2 7.0 6.7 5.6 5.2 5.5 5.3 5.3
Not a great deal of difference, but I find it strange that the league
scoring the most runs would get up slightly less frequently with
runners in scoring position. Of course, home runs have a way of
removing runners from the bases. Keep in mind that these are averages
across all teams and do little to explain why a particular hitter
drove in more or less runs than expected.
Tom Ruane |
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